Archive for December, 2011

A Curious Coyote

in Death Valley.

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BOOK: Trading Secrets. REMINDER-Q1 House Builder Effect


20 Hard and Fast Rules to Help You Beat the Stock Market
By Simon Thompson.

Q1 House Builder Effect [the author is in the UK].
At the beginning of the year, buy a selection of the UK’s largest house builders and hold them 3 months. Sell at the end of March. For the past 29 years, you would have made a profit 24 times (82%). The average gain is 10.7% which includes the down years!

The author states that as investors become aware of this phenomenon, they jump the gun and start buying in December to get even more gains.  This has been very profitable, too.

Unfortunately, the author doesn’t list the names/symbols of the largest house builders.

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Book Review: Is Everyone Hanging Out Without Me?

By Mindy Kaling.

I didn’t know who Kaling was, but read that the book was funny. Come to find out, Kaling is a writer and some time actor on The Office, which I’ve seen maybe 10 minutes of.

In the Introduction she jokes that Aunts will buy this book for their nieces.

After reading the book, it would be a good book to buy a younger – high school or university – woman.

Kaling is smart and nerdy. After graduating from Dartmouth, she lived in a dinky apt in NYC where she shared a bed with her room mate. Worked 2 full time jobs, while interviewing to be a comedy writer on a tv show. She carved out one hour a day to work on a comedic play.

She entered that play into a contest. It won. It then played off off broadway.  The head writer of The Office saw the play, and hired her to write for his show.

It was a quick read of a cute, funny book. Get it for your niece.

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BOOK: Trading Secrets. REMINDER-Playing Footsie

20 Hard and Fast Rules to Help You Beat the Stock Market
By Simon Thompson.

Playing Footsie. (NOTE: this is a bull market phenomenon)

In the UK, the FTSE 100 is a listing of the top 100 companies in the UK, based on market value. The companies that make up the 100 changes each quarter.

The list is reviewed on the 2nd Wednesday of March, June, September, and December and companies are dropped on the 3rd Friday of those months. During those 7 trading days, funds that only invest in the 100 companies are forced to sell, thus lowering the price so that investors in the know, can buy these shares on the cheap.

All you have to do is buy shares of the companies that are being dropped from the 100 and hold for 3 months. Then do the same all over again by reinvesting the proceeds into the next companies being booted from the 100.

Ave quarterly gain has been 13.6%.
To find out the changes: Www.ftse.com/indices

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Be Prepared to Laugh

This video of two little ones in a Taekwondo “fight” is really cute.

 

 

 

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Bend – Expected to be the #1 Housing Market For the Next 5 Years

According to this Business Insider article, Bend is the #1 best housing markets for the next five years!

“Annualized growth from 2011 – 2016: +11.9%

Home prices in Bend are 45.2% off their peak in Q1 2007, which could make it good time to invest. Bend’s median family income is close to the national average of $61,600, but unemployment is high at 12.6%.”

Data from Case Shiller.

#1 Bend, Oregon
#2 Medford, Oregon
#3 Madera, California
#4 Napa, California
#5 Flagstaff, Arizona
#6 Carson City, Nevada
#7 (tie) Panama City, Florida
#7 (tie) Bremerton, Washington
#9 Ocala, Florida
#10 Lakeland, Florida
#11 Santa Fe, New Mexico
#12 Eugene, Oregon
#13 Bakersfield, California
#14 Mobile, Alabama
#15 Punta Gorda, Florida

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Max King Does It Again!

For the 4th year in a row, King won the World XTERRA Trail Run Championship. Ran the 13.6 mile course in 1 hour and 21 minutes.

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Book Review: Steve Jobs

By Walter Isaacson.  Fascinating read.  Highly recommend.

“This is shit!” “This sucks!”

These are Jobs’ 2 favorite saying his entire life.

“Jobs has an “almost willful lack of tact”. It was more than just an inability to hide his opinions when others said something he thought dumb: it was a conscious readiness, even a perverse eagerness, to put people down, humiliate them, to show he was smarter.”

Steve Jobs is a VERY unlikeable man. So unlikeable that I would/will think twice before I decide to buy an Apple product.

When I was about a third of the way thru the book [when Jobs got ousted from Apple], and all I could think about is how I hoped Jobs fails. Fails at whatever he is going to do next. Then…I realize, I know the outcome. And I’m disappointed. I’m bummed that such a HUGE prick ended up being financially successful and he has all these devoted followers.

That said, I’m also shocked that he commissioned this book. However, like many politicians and other “celebrities”, he must have had illusions of grandeur. I guess he was unaware of what a jerk he is, and unaware how knowing more about him is NOT a good thing for his adoring masses.

After this book came out, I read a commentary [on the below mentioned blog] about calling him an asshole vs jerk. The commentator said that an asshole was a jerk with class. Thus, Jobs was a jerk.

I wonder where prick falls on this description gauge. I’m thinking a prick is worse than a jerk.

Asshole – – – – > Jerk – – – – > Prick

If so, then Jobs is a prick.

I hardly knew anything about Jobs, but in February I read “10 Unusual Things I Didn’t Know About Steve Jobs” by James Altucher, my fav blogger.

And then after he passed there were a ton of articles about him, a 2 part “60 minutes” interview with Isaacson and other promo’s re this book.

I’ll assume most people have read/seen these and are familiar with what is now “common knowledge” about him.

The below are other tidbits I found interesting.

* Mannn, is he a cry baby. He is hugely rude, guised under being brutally honest. However, there is a severely mean way to be honest and a nicer way to be honest. Jobs is severely mean. Yet…he seems to cry at the drop of a hat. I worked for years in a tough, Corporate America work environment. I can’t imagine the response should someone in a high position be seen to cry once, let alone all the time. What a bully and a wimp.

* Jobs is working at Atari. Out of the blue, he walks into the CEO’s office to tell him he’s quitting to go find his guru. CEO’s quick and funny response? “No shit, that’s super. Write me!”

Then Jobs asks him to help pay. “Bullshit” was the response.

* Apple originally started with Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ron Wayne [with 10% ownership]. Then Wayne got cold feet and backed out. Had he stayed in, he would have been worth $2.6 billion by the end of 2010.

* I’ve read stories where Bill Gates would code all night and go to a big meeting/presentation/lecture unkempt and smelly, but I haven’t read that that was his usual way of life. Could be, I just don’t really know.  Jobs, on the other hand, had the mistaken belief that since he only ate fruit, he only needed to bathe once a week. He had to work the night shift at Atari cuz NO one wanted him around during regular working hours. Around the time Apple had their IPO was when he started bathing daily.

* Jobs thought rules didn’t apply to him. Such as, he never put a license plate on his car, and he always parked in the handicapped parking spots.

* Jobs looked at 2,000 shades of beige for the Macintosh, but didn’t like any of them.

* “Real artists sign their work”.  When the design for the Macintosh was locked in, Jobs held a ceremony where he had the design team sign a piece of paper with a sharpie. These signatures were engraved inside each computer.

* When Jobs was ousted from Apple, he sold all but 1 of his 6.5 million shares for $100 million.

* After the Pixar IPO, Jobs was worth$1.2 billion.

* At Apple the 2nd time, Jobs is known for making $1 a year. Less known is that when he came back his hand-picked board bought him a jet that he personally designed, and then offered him 14 million options. Jobs took the jet and then demanded 20 million options! A few years later when these options were out of the money, he demanded more options at a lower price [he did give the original options back].

* Why don’t Apple products use Adobe Flash? Because back in 1999, Jobs wanted Adobe to make new Mac versions of Adobe Premier and Photoshop, which was popular on Windows computers. Adobe turned him down, which stunned Jobs. Adobe said there weren’t enough users to make it worthwhile. Jobs was furious and felt betrayed. He held a grudge and never forgave Adobe.

* Dylan was Jobs favorite music artist. His fav Dylan song? One Too Many Mornings.

* After he launched the iPad, he received about 800 emails in 24 hours. Most of them complaining. He wrote people back “Your parents would be so proud of how you turned out.” So, he can tell any and every one “This is crap”, but if someone said it to him, he’s insulted and needs to insult the giver. Can dish it out, but can’t take it. Again…he’s a bully and a wimp.

* When Jobs finds out he has a tumor on his pancreas, he refuses to have it removed. Everyone begged and pleaded, but he thinks that his diet will make it go away. 9 months later the tumor had grown and spread, he then decides to have it removed.

* He doted over his oldest son, Reed, and ignored his 2 daughters, Erin and Eve [and REALLY ignored and abandoned his first daughter, Lisa]. He “lights up” when Reed walks into the room [NOT when his wife enters]. When diagnosed with cancer, the 1 goal he had was to be alive to watch Reed graduate from high school. That kept him going. If his wife tried to get him to do something, and usually he wouldn’t [he’s a rebel, after all], she would enlist Reed for help.

* In November 2010, he wasn’t eating, and had to be fed via an IV. He was down to 115 pounds. At thanksgiving in Hawaii [each year they visited over the holidays], they were staying at a place where everyone ate in a communal dining room. Jobs was there looking emaciated, rocked and moaned in pain during the meals, and didn’t touch his food. Amazingly, this never leaked out.

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NEWS FLASH !! If You Have Cancer, Best NOT to be Obese or Have Diabetes

New research from 2 studies suggests that people diagnosed with cancer have a poorer prognosis if they’re obese or have type 2 diabetes.

NO!  Money, time and energy were actually spent figuring this out?  Duh.

In addition, both studies found that deaths from any cause, including heart disease, were also increased in those who were obese or had type 2 diabetes!!

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Investment Strategy: Only Hold Stocks on the First Day of the Month – DEC

Definitely made money: 5

Made NO money: 6

Depends upon when bought/sold: 1

The S&P has reported about an investor who had invested only on the first day of the each month since the year 2000, and outperformed a “Buy and Hold” portfolio by 68%.

The S&P report found that if someone invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 1999, and left the money there until Dec. 1, 2010, they would have just $8,209. HOWEVER, an investor who was in the market only on the first day of every month over the same time period [buying at the close on Dec. 31 and selling at the close of the first trading day in January] would have $13,816.

December – If you bought at the open on the 30th, you would have made good money selling on the first. If you bought any other time on the 30th, you would be a little more than break even on the first.

November – If you bought on last day of the month, you would NOT have made money selling on the first.

October – It might be easiest to just look at the below chart. The left side of the chart is Friday the 30th, and the right side is Monday. This goes in the NO category.

September – If you bought during the low points between 2.45 pm and 3.45 pm on the 31st, and sold in a 20 minute time frame on the first, you would have made a little bit of money. I’m putting this under the NO category.

August – If you bought any time on the 29th, you could have sold soon after the market opened on the 1st and made just a little bit of money. Otherwise NO money made.

Another provision of the buying on the last day theory is: If the last half of the last day of the month was negative and the first half of the first day of the month was negative, buy at 11 a.m. and hold for the rest of the day.

Even though events didn’t quite correlate to the above scenario, I still bought some SPY at around noon EST and ended up selling later in the day and made my money!

July – If you bought SPY any time on June 30 and sold it anytime on July 1st, you would have made money. NOTE: if you bought SPY on May 31st, July 1st would have been the first time to sell and make money.

June – Again, all day on the 30th I had planned on buying SPY at or near the Close. But when that time came, it was priced at near the high for the day…and just couldn’t do it. Today I looked at last month, and if I bought on the last day of April, I would still be holding it today. Prices went down on June 1st, so it was a good call NOT to buy any of the 30th.

May – All day Friday I had planned on buying SPY at the Close. Then, when Close came, I just couldn’t do it. It seemed it was closing near the days high…and I just couldn’t pull the trigger. On Monday, the market opened higher, but NOT high enough that I would have made any money [NOT even $100], and SPY ended up closing down below Friday’s close price.

April – If one bought any time on March 31st and sold any time on April 1st, one would have made money.

March – If one bought at the low of the day on Feb 28th and sold any time on March 1st, you would have made money. NOTE: that the market went up on March 2nd – if you bought any time on the 28th, and sold any time on the 2nd you would have made money.

February – The market was way up on Feb 1st as compared to January 31st. For 2 months now, if you had followed this strategy, you would have made money.

January – If someone bought just about any stock on Friday [Dec 31st] and sold by the close of today, they would be up…wayyy up.

 

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